UK Property Heading for a Crash?
A former advisor to Gordon Brown, the economist David Miles warned today that the property market may be in for a fall in coming years. He predicts this crash will occur after the gradual petering out of house price increases.
It is hypothesised that the high demand in the buying market at the moment has been born out of expectations of fast price rises, and if this does not happen then the fall may occur - the results of unfounded speculation.
Mr Miles, who now works for Morgan Stanley, stated that: "A sharp fall in real house prices is likely at some point in the relatively near future, though it could yet be one to two years away". However he also stated that it is impossible to accurately predict what will happen in the future, although his thoughts are partly backed up by a research firm specialising in property who expect the current inflation to halt suddenly next year.
The research from Hometrack predicts that in some areas house prices will tumble, and the rise for most of the UK will only be 4% - compared to the 10% of the previous year - and the lowest increase in around ten years. If this is the case then the average UK home would only manage to gain in value at the current rate of inflation (3.7%), whilst some areas may suffer with only 1%.
The possibility of interest rates rising to 5.25% may also sink house price growth, and if high unemployment ensues the property market is in even more danger. The Financial Services Authority asked banks last week to tell their customers to take into account a 40% drop in house prices when thinking about mortgages.
These findings may be bad news in an already unpredictable buy-to-let marketplace - although those who will be financially secure may well be better off waiting for a drop in prices before investing in this area.